Below-Average Hurricane Season Florida
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Fellow Floridians! Joe Taylor Restoration brings you good tidings on this fine Wednesday morning! The hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2017, including a below-average hurricane season Florida! The meteorologists predict that 2017 hurricane activity will be about 85 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2016’s hurricane activity was about 135 percent of the average season, as evidenced by the 15 total named storms. Seven of those fifteen became hurricanes, and four, including Hurricane Matthew, became major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3, 4 or 5) that slammed the Atlantic coast last season.
This year, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting only 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, researchers expect only four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team bases its forecasts on 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 42 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
- 24 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
- 24 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
- 34 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)
All in all, some good news, don’t you think? As we are quickly approaching the 2017 hurricane season Florida, we at Joe Taylor Restoration are hoping the CSU meteorologists are right, and we have a lot more clear, sunny skies this year from June through November. But even if this hurricane season turns out to be unpredictable, we are predictably prepared to help with all your restoration needs.